CGE-BASED IMPACT STUDIES
Insights & Studies
This section will present selected economic impact studies and research contributions. Each item will include a brief description of the question, the method and the main findings, together with a link to the available publication.
The studies will illustrate applications of quantitative economic analysis. Publication details will identify the authors and the institutional context of each contribution.
Michigan, Midterms and Motor Vehicles: Potential Regional Effects of US Automotive Tariffs and European Retaliation by 2028
Comprehensive Impact Study | Stephen Sacht | 10/31/2026
How would a renewed increase in U.S. tariffs on European motor vehicles and parts following the 2026 midterm elections affect Michigan’s economy by 2028? And how would European retaliatory tariffs change these effects?
Simulations based on the S8IS-specific CGE model indicate that the U.S. tariffs would increase output (+0.40%) and employment (+4.41%) in Michigan’s automotive industry, while reducing the state’s real GDP (−0.07%) and overall employment due to adverse effects on other industries. European retaliation would dampen the automotive industry's gains in output (+0.14%) and employment (+1.56%), while slightly increasing Michigan’s GDP losses (−0.09%).
The results highlight how sector-specific protectionism can benefit the targeted industry at the expense of the wider regional economy. Diversified trade relationships and regional production structures play an important role in mitigating adverse effects.
© 2026 Stephen Sacht (S8IS). All rights reserved.