Services & Applications
CGE-BASED IMPACT STUDIES
Economic decisions have effects beyond the industry or region in which they originate.
I use CGE-based scenario analysis to examine these connections and assess the consequences of a specified investment, policy change or disruption. The following applications illustrate the questions a study can address.
Investment projects, fiscal measures and other economic changes can affect output, employment, consumption and investment across an economy. I assess these effects at the national, regional and sectoral levels, with attention to price adjustments and the mechanisms connecting the results.
Typical questions include
- How does a major investment affect GDP, value added and employment?
- How do fiscal or economic policy measures affect consumption and investment?
- Which regions benefit, and where might activity be displaced?
The study identifies the main transmission channels and explains how the results depend on the scenario and its assumptions.
Macroeconomic & Regional Effects
No industry operates in isolation. Changes in production costs, regulation or demand can spread through suppliers, customers and factor markets. I analyse the industry of interest within this wider network, including effects on other industries and regions.
Typical questions include
- How do emissions-related regulations or rising input costs affect the steel industry?
- How do supply disruptions affect manufacturing and its suppliers?
- How does demographic change affect construction demand and labour availability?
The analysis connects changes in output and competitiveness to developments in costs, demand and interindustry linkages.
Industries & their Interdependencies
Tariffs, trade restrictions and disruptions to international transport can alter input costs, sourcing decisions and export opportunities. I examine how such changes affect industries and regions through international trade and interconnected supply chains.
Typical questions include
- How would a change in U.S. tariffs affect an industry and its export markets?
- How would disruption of a critical trade route, such as the Strait of Hormuz, affect input availability and production costs?
- What economic effects could alternative sanctions or trade-fragmentation scenarios have?
Scenarios are defined explicitly, so their effects can be compared across trading partners, industries and regions.
Trade Policy & Supply Chains
Changes in energy supply, industrial technologies and climate-related risks affect production costs and economic activity. I assess the economic implications of energy transition and adaptation measures, as well as disruptions caused by natural disasters.
Typical questions include
- How would a switch to hydrogen-based production affect industrial costs and competitiveness under different energy-price assumptions?
- How do higher energy prices affect output and employment across industries and regions?
- What economic losses follow from floods, and how do production disruptions spread through supply chains?
Information on physical damage or production outages can be translated into economic scenarios to examine wider effects and recovery or adaptation options.
Energy Transition & Climate Resilience
Each project starts with a clearly defined research question. Scope, data requirements, deliverables and timing are agreed at the outset. Projects can be handled confidentially where required.
© 2026 Stephen Sacht (S8IS). All rights reserved.